{"id":"W3144256111","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3714453","title":"Elections, Political Polarization, and Economic Uncertainty","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":17,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Polarization (electrochemistry); Presidential system; Presidential election; Download; Politics; Political science; National election; Developing country; Economics; Development economics; Demographic economics; Political economy; Economic policy; Economic growth; Law","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002813965,0.0001247392,0.0005007307,0.0007605829,0.0006131679,0.004018805,0.0002354012,0.0009702931,0.004990598],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02584367,0.0001650905,0.0001840336,0.0010837,0.001299926,0.001907164,0.001056991,0.001359974,0.0003347803],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005654343,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003854552,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00185068,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001769871,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990174,0.0004419347,0.00004502331,0.0001194252,0.0001611944,0.0002150338],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9789022,0.01518623,0.003940378,0.0005629596,0.0005402995,0.00086801],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001942236,0.000588472,0.4247584,0.0001620361,0.0003597816,0.0007010656,0.002001547,0.03526261,0.001279015,0.441295,0.01211256,0.07953738],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00009566543,0.0001631403,0.2634795,0.00007089887,0.0001494053,0.0003137826,0.003213989,0.05548023,0.0004993073,0.6678111,0.00862868,0.00009434966],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9597228,0.002099924,0.004249731,0.006261942,0.0001210441,0.00001209969,0.0001989009,0.000017653,0.02731592],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9989355,0.0002927521,0.00006585864,0.00008458593,0.00009262328,0.000002356024,0.0000270984,0.00000281618,0.0004963882],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.004990598,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01669526,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01146145407422836,"score_gpt":0.2121759420679191,"score_spread":0.2007144879936908,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}