{"id":"W3148100356","doi":"10.1111/obes.12431","title":"The Impact of Pessimistic Expectations and the Effects of COVID-19-Induced Uncertainty in the Euro Area","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Research Padua  Archive (University of Padua)","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":29,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"HEC Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Pessimism; Shock (circulatory); Economics; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Quarter (Canadian coin); Inflation (cosmology); Econometrics; Industrial production; Environmental science; Macroeconomics; Physics; Geography; Medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002802695,0.0006208539,0.0007084892,0.0005874209,0.0003673601,0.002740366,0.0007338399,0.001545129,0.002085244],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01059032,0.0004036222,0.0008549963,0.0006154663,0.0007996156,0.001105532,0.001119813,0.001945435,0.0002068092],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000913629,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006772968,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02505193,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01023181,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9991422,0.0004225281,0.00004420502,0.0001377825,0.00006557421,0.0001877199],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9924115,0.005086139,0.001461649,0.0003309047,0.0003645062,0.000345287],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004223257,0.0001438507,0.08722942,0.00005956091,0.0001675761,0.0003940566,0.0001243037,0.8946612,0.0007850865,0.01116795,0.00146047,0.003384132],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00006620983,0.0002459189,0.0350819,0.00003507726,0.00007606937,0.00008941852,0.0002457084,0.9580337,0.0006977656,0.004661519,0.0007121908,0.00005462856],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9925448,0.0002980528,0.00328241,0.0008735538,0.00004416302,0.00001300163,0.0006052275,0.0000698834,0.002268965],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9989385,0.00007662347,0.0003242124,0.00004406087,0.00001453421,0.000006181146,0.0002544697,0.000007816697,0.0003336883],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02505193,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.0498122,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06255751471118674,"score_gpt":0.3100860545938826,"score_spread":0.2475285398826959,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}