{"id":"W3149318312","doi":"10.21034/wp.755","title":"Monetary Independence and Rollover Crises","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":9,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Rollover (web design); Government bond; Monetary economics; Independence (probability theory); Recession; Economics; Monetary policy; Market liquidity; Debt; Government (linguistics); Bond; Currency; Sudden stop; Sovereign default; Financial crisis; Financial system; Sovereign debt; Economic policy; International economics; Sovereignty; Interest rate; Keynesian economics; Macroeconomics; Finance; Market economy; Political science; Politics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007928816,0.0003604476,0.0005478922,0.0005313934,0.0005426903,0.002173929,0.0003015024,0.00106641,0.005885188],"category_scores_gemma":[0.004670127,0.0001973999,0.0003696111,0.0004238205,0.00139711,0.001955183,0.001839286,0.002274419,0.0002875279],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000624052,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000421945,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003200534,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001476947,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996269,0.0001132866,0.00002375422,0.00005258572,0.00004813871,0.0001354099],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9954222,0.001426135,0.002268658,0.0002062749,0.0001413454,0.0005355035],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.003592096,0.001110967,0.270716,0.0006920938,0.0007753205,0.0067154,0.002541989,0.1176621,0.005426076,0.4887445,0.01736534,0.08465819],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000466893,0.000550836,0.1827076,0.0003185133,0.0003711049,0.00186271,0.002969311,0.1445952,0.002564204,0.6463369,0.01708928,0.0001675632],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9614713,0.002862463,0.004627549,0.005693191,0.00008600244,0.000009755037,0.0001669831,0.0000460262,0.02503674],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9979855,0.0004955526,0.0000736505,0.00008913793,0.00005757796,0.000002550149,0.00003052669,0.000004003664,0.001261401],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.005885188,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01968789,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03914845238050161,"score_gpt":0.2451224882773703,"score_spread":0.2059740358968687,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}