{"id":"W3150925442","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3771429","title":"Model Complexity, Expectations, and Asset Prices","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Asset (computer security); Economics; Financial economics; Business; Monetary economics; Actuarial science; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00270511,0.0005141601,0.000949601,0.0006693766,0.0004062742,0.003455459,0.0006979067,0.001571632,0.004238097],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03870015,0.000462158,0.0005774736,0.0005783336,0.001424561,0.005325381,0.001262397,0.001833646,0.0003121101],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001056441,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007333667,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002754192,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001683398,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990025,0.0006058129,0.00004638054,0.0001270675,0.000134575,0.00008366981],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9750083,0.02139842,0.002041895,0.0005903186,0.000476177,0.0004847595],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002375241,0.00008964781,0.009347339,0.00009043654,0.0001164264,0.0001886568,0.0003402772,0.5011619,0.0003534216,0.4769181,0.001564747,0.009591469],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002378595,0.00002158,0.001126103,0.00001015199,0.0000116378,0.00003140518,0.0000489292,0.4291146,0.00005734594,0.569291,0.0002492574,0.00001417877],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6634714,0.00137239,0.2982109,0.0119106,0.0001269653,0.00003870296,0.000487306,0.000182419,0.02419929],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9944882,0.0003201316,0.003652437,0.00008509601,0.00006636176,0.00002113776,0.0001167654,0.00001726533,0.001232547],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.004238097,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01430619,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.09465069660518481,"score_gpt":0.2550039445121554,"score_spread":0.1603532479069705,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}