{"id":"W3152655764","doi":"10.1007/s13555-021-00518-8","title":"Psoriasis Prevalence and Severity by Expert Elicitation","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Dermatology and Therapy","topic":"Psoriasis: Treatment and Pathogenesis","field":"Immunology and Microbiology","cited_by":57,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Hôtel-Dieu de Québec; Université Laval; BC Children's Hospital; McMaster University; SKiN Health; Probity Medical Research; University of British Columbia; Dermatrials Research; Ottawa Hospital; Lynde Centre for Dermatology; University of Alberta; University of Ottawa; Centre de Recherche Dermatologique du Québec Métropolitain; Innovaderm (Canada)","funders":"Janssen Canada; Novartis Pharmaceuticals Canada; LEO Pharma; AbbVie","keywords":"Psoriasis; Medicine; Population; Confidence interval; Credible interval; Expert elicitation; Estimation; Body surface area; Epidemiology; Disease; Demography; Statistics; Internal medicine; Dermatology; Environmental health; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00004995533,0.0001289533,0.0001971335,0.00002821215,0.000195396,0.00001110652,0.0000453227,0.0002236826,0.0002287842],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0000158104,0.0001130218,0.00003048673,0.00005674474,0.0001451745,0.00007655222,0.00002175923,0.00007441895,0.00003202306],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000004307691,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001853693,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00001523739,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000005112402,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9991822,0.0002461686,0.0001264702,0.0002557643,0.00001523023,0.0001741491],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.999635,0.0001413083,0.0000411314,0.0001285234,0.00003427146,0.00001978323],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"bench_or_experimental","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005010066,0.0003689441,0.1714823,0.00005681136,0.0008048026,0.00009012815,0.003495105,4.585956e-8,0.2779213,0.002004299,0.01402417,0.5292512],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.005555324,0.0001132722,0.1297787,0.00002606454,0.00007784094,0.002480789,0.0003616689,0.00000435058,0.6152636,0.002049264,0.2438745,0.0004146645],"study_design_candidate":"bench_or_experimental","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8636046,0.1346325,0.00004898813,0.001056181,0.0002787181,0.0000780386,0.00002727154,0.00003697928,0.0002366955],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9490857,0.04922809,0.0000823966,0.000880024,0.00001367535,0.00003272694,0.0001046712,0.000007740297,0.0005649463],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5288365,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4608897,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01412629644656663,"score_gpt":0.2487532194660437,"score_spread":0.234626923019477,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}