{"id":"W3156263552","doi":"10.1038/s43017-021-00155-x","title":"Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"review","venue":"Nature Reviews Earth & Environment","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":239,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Environment and Climate Change Canada","funders":"Climate Program Office; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; European Commission; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine; Horizon 2020 Framework Programme; Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean; Met Office; U.S. Department of Energy; Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Predictability; Climatology; Earth system science; Forecast skill; Environmental science; Forecast period; Meteorology; Geology; Geography; Oceanography; Mathematics; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","research_integrity","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.001318052,0.0009810739,0.003166821,0.00008011705,0.0002211109,0.0001036584,0.000664805,0.001308647,0.009550406],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000128104,0.00078828,0.001244027,0.0003995708,0.0001490321,0.0001866121,0.0008032967,0.001542049,0.008922468],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006652283,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00007255761,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0000614834,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00005144226,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9934494,0.0013529,0.001574214,0.001815415,0.001118111,0.0006899914],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9970701,0.0002601318,0.0005616352,0.001527344,0.000007134347,0.0005736861],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001119814,0.000206438,0.00004695063,0.003584635,0.0001315863,0.00004797502,0.00006929225,0.0001613296,0.00001764171,0.0001263702,0.003126267,0.9924703],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000202263,0.00005542313,0.0001182953,0.01101724,0.0009339286,0.00004010915,0.000007150302,0.00009170467,0.000005433855,0.000007595935,0.9868829,0.0006379387],"study_design_candidate":"design_other","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"review","genre_gemma":"review","genre_scores_codex":[0.00009671848,0.9917759,0.000561445,0.0000507105,0.0006384085,0.003500752,0.00120161,0.00009544546,0.002078968],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.00002485989,0.9908646,0.005189546,0.0002724283,0.0004584978,0.0006275616,0.001672451,0.00009415704,0.00079588],"genre_candidate":"review","genre_consensus":"review","teacher_disagreement_score":0.9918324,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999878,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03671543471782294,"score_gpt":0.2929060512598479,"score_spread":0.256190616542025,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}