{"id":"W3158804972","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3563589","title":"Forward Premium Puzzle and Heterogeneous Beliefs","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Manitoba; University of Lethbridge","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Financial economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.006038735,0.0005188091,0.00213956,0.00142996,0.0008153248,0.003805765,0.001998653,0.005779425,0.01805685],"category_scores_gemma":[0.05414249,0.0007359217,0.0008318864,0.001036704,0.002423787,0.007845846,0.001759977,0.006113995,0.001080923],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007635527,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003307478,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002099374,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0009452475,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9991732,0.0002174413,0.00007439058,0.0002038721,0.0001915199,0.0001395148],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9588395,0.02989614,0.005355324,0.003728462,0.00100311,0.001177417],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001437904,0.0004792348,0.02139564,0.0002139715,0.0002475217,0.00422918,0.002410003,0.01042079,0.003303617,0.8898861,0.01337492,0.05260116],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004122285,0.0000643013,0.01814672,0.00005338579,0.00009668089,0.001072031,0.0004490395,0.04997978,0.0006021105,0.9275669,0.001481779,0.00007498537],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8953473,0.001858199,0.03712913,0.0350999,0.000369121,0.00003067982,0.0006485489,0.0003308959,0.02918631],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9930903,0.0003023192,0.001037543,0.000466944,0.0004640711,0.000007395177,0.0001347488,0.00003736821,0.004459401],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01805685,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.06040615,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03262162170520683,"score_gpt":0.2034442423415367,"score_spread":0.1708226206363299,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}