{"id":"W3159646672","doi":"10.24908/iqurcp.8415","title":"What are the Chances...?","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Inquiry Queen s Undergraduate Research Conference Proceedings","topic":"Statistics Education and Methodologies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Intuition; Actuarial science; Computer science; Epistemology; Positive economics; Psychology; Economics; Philosophy","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01150246,0.001011928,0.001129666,0.002097444,0.003572895,0.01223478,0.001774438,0.003962584,0.01948494],"category_scores_gemma":[0.06280959,0.0006432027,0.000820686,0.001371283,0.02366086,0.02876741,0.004444329,0.007889708,0.007409552],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.003440469,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002714886,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003722007,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002692139,"domain_scores_codex":[0.989818,0.00526292,0.0004351881,0.001201537,0.002520642,0.0007617244],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9729859,0.01746128,0.002363458,0.001812516,0.003103142,0.002273588],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00008295907,0.00004672357,0.005275936,0.0003545683,0.00009867873,0.000228217,0.004037656,0.0009095732,0.0002730699,0.8148217,0.1004449,0.07342605],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001089228,0.00003210339,0.002131866,0.0003536667,0.00002381423,0.0002359145,0.002760581,0.00050035,0.0001860549,0.8381293,0.1555865,0.00004910786],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"commentary","genre_gemma":"other","genre_scores_codex":[0.01943958,0.02975601,0.06824648,0.6993522,0.01007039,0.00009566579,0.0008747305,0.0003186018,0.1718463],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.7838019,0.03861104,0.03228351,0.07383043,0.01162766,0.0004352845,0.0005931295,0.0006147043,0.05820223],"genre_candidate":"other","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.01948494,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.06518358,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.490455223525094,"score_gpt":0.506179301772882,"score_spread":0.01572407824778799,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}