{"id":"W3160132987","doi":"10.1175/jcli-d-20-0846.1","title":"A Regional Seasonal Forecast Model of Arctic Minimum Sea Ice Extent: Reflected Solar Radiation versus Late Winter Coastal Divergence","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Climate","topic":"Arctic and Antarctic ice dynamics","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":14,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"McGill University","funders":"Fonds de recherche du Québec – Nature et technologies; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Marine Environmental Observation Prediction and Response Network; McGill University; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Climatology; Sea ice; Arctic ice pack; Hindcast; Arctic; Forecast skill; Predictability; Geology; Environmental science; Proxy (statistics); Oceanography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003246608,0.0004865797,0.000389706,0.0002064463,0.0002580933,0.0006935294,0.0006170018,0.0006749401,0.001271294],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0004989933,0.00028383,0.0007554156,0.0002131489,0.0002411073,0.0003165621,0.0002516516,0.00052275,0.0001725314],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0009664914,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001045298,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.1104024,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.05385726,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9999388,0.00001355793,0.00000326846,0.00002494424,0.000007284382,0.00001211011],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9997926,0.00006090999,0.00003199462,0.00001643964,0.0000545133,0.0000436742],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001134191,0.00003626377,0.009529235,0.000006555129,0.00003917027,0.00002937825,0.000009929689,0.9876261,0.0009217959,0.0002317764,0.0002651585,0.001191144],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001383372,0.00002748852,0.002353217,0.000001817845,0.00001139153,0.000002289685,0.000005957369,0.9973014,0.000148263,0.00005426619,0.00007605772,0.000003999238],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9943054,0.00005772395,0.003172779,0.0001481691,0.00003342482,0.000007791745,0.0006817256,0.0001029643,0.001490024],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9978495,0.00002748766,0.0009298011,0.00001319751,0.000007422613,0.000007402876,0.0004943728,0.000008886162,0.0006619879],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1104024,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2195196,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02691275411416507,"score_gpt":0.2493760406666567,"score_spread":0.2224632865524916,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}