{"id":"W3163046818","doi":"10.37625/abr.24.1.54-66","title":"Have Business Cycles Become More Synchronous After NAFTA?","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"American Business Review","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Business cycle; Robustness (evolution); Hodrick–Prescott filter; Filter (signal processing); Synchronization (alternating current); International business; Economics; International trade; International economics; Business; Macroeconomics; Computer science; Telecommunications; Management","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.0002955846,0.0003791022,0.001458151,0.0001613119,0.0001038093,0.0001016526,0.0003244274,0.00006609812,0.004295899],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002956639,0.0004143003,0.0002417951,0.001056156,0.0002789337,0.0004235631,0.0001487843,0.0001685526,0.002433047],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001216573,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00008328583,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003158414,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0000887828,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9975435,0.00003793347,0.001024667,0.0007385603,0.00005081629,0.000604486],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9980905,0.00005801595,0.0006402704,0.000925767,0.000105785,0.0001796696],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001334366,0.001271828,0.5423489,0.01754186,0.001314449,0.001189878,0.001075946,0.001952581,0.00002244063,0.006124941,0.06544444,0.3615794],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003072872,0.00001888097,0.5912959,0.0009971871,0.00005844123,0.0001612002,0.00005466195,0.0003378663,0.000006663005,0.0005451799,0.405465,0.0007517064],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"review","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.3993716,0.5486931,0.00198393,0.0338407,0.0009008586,0.0007272552,0.0006833681,0.0001611451,0.01363808],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.7770804,0.200351,0.001120834,0.01942423,0.0003780334,0.0001444318,0.0001660313,0.00008618586,0.001248941],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.3777088,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998309,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04108315316829236,"score_gpt":0.2548327738985451,"score_spread":0.2137496207302528,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}