{"id":"W3163279460","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.4771721","title":"Rational vs. Irrational Beliefs in a Complex World","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada; Government of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Irrational number; Psychology; Positive economics; Epistemology; Economics; Philosophy; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.005876128,0.0003156911,0.0004698166,0.0008415315,0.0003837541,0.004075642,0.0004400262,0.001731584,0.004408451],"category_scores_gemma":[0.04121695,0.0002511279,0.0003639308,0.0006354734,0.002644558,0.005014698,0.001247688,0.001637873,0.0001884735],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007448181,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003239744,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0005727155,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000501433,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9983239,0.0007879023,0.0001086809,0.0002244412,0.0003758386,0.0001792519],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9524715,0.04017457,0.003559906,0.001479177,0.001236816,0.001078001],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0007485789,0.0002572666,0.02542569,0.0003573322,0.0001868282,0.0004345195,0.002266797,0.03107689,0.001560513,0.8943639,0.001403566,0.04191808],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00008465011,0.0001038304,0.009916464,0.0000453494,0.00005974983,0.00009007923,0.0007665568,0.05415289,0.000293977,0.9340445,0.0004172803,0.0000247111],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9090157,0.0006098152,0.04934543,0.007793496,0.00008547559,0.00004799838,0.0001259394,0.00003184083,0.03294428],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9969472,0.0002042706,0.002204458,0.0001181746,0.00005916966,0.00001681107,0.000016972,0.000006434746,0.0004264624],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.005876128,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03107631,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1235629931724487,"score_gpt":0.4096547294732133,"score_spread":0.2860917363007646,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}