{"id":"W3164908957","doi":"","title":"Distress Risk Puzzle and Analyst Forecast Optimism","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Optimism; Earnings; Distress; Financial distress; Actuarial science; Business; Quarter (Canadian coin); Economics; Financial economics; Finance; Psychology; Financial system; Social psychology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002094791,0.0002069433,0.000373357,0.0008097223,0.0002525833,0.001923825,0.0002974031,0.0008443556,0.002416897],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03103529,0.0001994659,0.0001622901,0.000726841,0.0006282275,0.002133368,0.0008333311,0.001061584,0.0002298663],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005427258,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002862934,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001337846,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001050511,"domain_scores_codex":[0.999424,0.0001589403,0.00005573559,0.00009545776,0.0001987068,0.00006721117],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9783642,0.01027995,0.008704514,0.001242259,0.0008452121,0.0005638183],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.002561246,0.0002144222,0.7220445,0.0002178085,0.0003035113,0.001222057,0.005352355,0.03959372,0.01053783,0.05673096,0.006390757,0.1548309],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001272544,0.0002721157,0.7974594,0.00008228038,0.0001121332,0.001175746,0.001972036,0.05069068,0.002356431,0.1399445,0.005684973,0.0001225217],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9808248,0.001513345,0.00426846,0.002781178,0.0000358487,0.000008478502,0.0001508189,0.00006825873,0.01034873],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9991917,0.0001568874,0.0002534614,0.00008211158,0.00003569369,0.00000132424,0.00003788415,0.00000355749,0.0002373413],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.002416897,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01107842,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01751222409184364,"score_gpt":0.1923885159585728,"score_spread":0.1748762918667291,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}