{"id":"W3165184513","doi":"10.18280/ria.350202","title":"Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic with Prophet","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Revue d intelligence artificielle","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":9,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Pandemic; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Data science; Computer science; Operations research; Work (physics); Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Actuarial science; Econometrics; Statistics; Business; Economics; Engineering; Mathematics; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002183908,0.0006833288,0.0004907624,0.00139631,0.0003060566,0.001060125,0.0008239854,0.00107797,0.003029831],"category_scores_gemma":[0.007438981,0.0003504145,0.0008450848,0.000936476,0.0003580994,0.001321789,0.0007870687,0.001416215,0.001021691],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007208703,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0009403412,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01900299,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01641722,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995399,0.0002022205,0.00003218485,0.00008116951,0.00009090945,0.00005365643],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9968054,0.002372554,0.0002222681,0.000203871,0.0002916067,0.0001043359],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002900878,0.0001113474,0.02769898,0.0002356726,0.00009169434,0.0003019426,0.0002057843,0.9097333,0.0007828028,0.006986817,0.01751628,0.03604527],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001474608,0.00003966555,0.001448219,0.00001796249,0.00000934609,0.00002651964,0.00005472844,0.9926795,0.0002783868,0.002595997,0.00281802,0.00001700391],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.6169727,0.001995525,0.2977948,0.008523635,0.001348504,0.0004828777,0.03204071,0.01295219,0.02788899],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8541593,0.0005927332,0.1222109,0.0005397741,0.000232216,0.0001948544,0.0171837,0.0004330032,0.004453489],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01900299,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03778481,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4474470864140013,"score_gpt":0.4207054737734894,"score_spread":0.02674161264051189,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}