{"id":"W3168507971","doi":"10.3390/jrfm14060259","title":"A Deep Learning Integrated Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD) Sytematic Mortality Risk Model","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of risk and financial management","topic":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":9,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Autoregressive integrated moving average; Computer science; Artificial neural network; Artificial intelligence; Machine learning; Cohort; Actuarial science; Econometrics; Economics; Statistics; Time series; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0008519345,0.000441803,0.0005448971,0.0004852525,0.0003071275,0.0007024549,0.001430842,0.001149646,0.002024342],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001643506,0.0003094489,0.0005517446,0.0004597591,0.0004154637,0.000841825,0.0008342043,0.001323407,0.0002426836],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001254036,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001548772,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01902749,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01726116,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997346,0.00004870913,0.00001681265,0.0000857447,0.00005451913,0.00005964838],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9996549,0.0001205838,0.00005773663,0.00001856551,0.0001203794,0.00002787444],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001107057,0.00009922046,0.009235147,0.00006050101,0.0001085975,0.0001598905,0.0000834687,0.9146383,0.001238258,0.02166479,0.002684584,0.04991658],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000004945392,0.00001654605,0.0005897758,0.000005390159,0.000012949,0.00001989634,0.000003559119,0.9962497,0.0001216999,0.002637196,0.0003338745,0.000004405366],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.2236046,0.0009969781,0.7601451,0.002614405,0.0002263533,0.00009643935,0.001597518,0.000555664,0.01016293],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9532123,0.0004517813,0.03374598,0.0002779319,0.00006013439,0.0001384868,0.0007367071,0.00001923543,0.01135748],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.01902749,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03783345,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01274065364053101,"score_gpt":0.264884075245002,"score_spread":0.252143421604471,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}