{"id":"W3169471325","doi":"","title":"Brexit and the Macroeconomic Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Fiscal Policies and Political Economy","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Brexit; Economics; Harm; European union; Welfare; Speculation; International economics; General equilibrium theory; International trade; Commercial policy; Macroeconomics; Political science; Market economy","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002158007,0.0003725317,0.0008013586,0.0008071378,0.001151754,0.005383505,0.0004892458,0.002192938,0.004661406],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01245952,0.0004799501,0.000833282,0.00146885,0.002174866,0.00294865,0.002141408,0.003125428,0.0003442084],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.004824174,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001098249,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01805831,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0113208,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988092,0.0004938457,0.00005044466,0.0001446824,0.0001647807,0.0003369701],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9933029,0.003381038,0.002419234,0.0003107242,0.0003375851,0.0002485312],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0009136999,0.0002197016,0.08139215,0.0001905794,0.000326499,0.001063504,0.000743538,0.5790424,0.000626345,0.311928,0.009545615,0.01400804],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002175722,0.0003196599,0.09718823,0.000325184,0.0002151774,0.0003646164,0.002800588,0.3479969,0.001230301,0.5303884,0.01869893,0.0002544417],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9403204,0.004773448,0.005447349,0.0192628,0.0001691523,0.00002194856,0.001140116,0.00009934423,0.02876534],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9978644,0.0008552658,0.0001228685,0.000233178,0.00003286574,0.000003563168,0.0001358125,0.000008946584,0.0007431079],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01805831,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03590637,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04353394766011368,"score_gpt":0.3384517341910201,"score_spread":0.2949177865309064,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}