{"id":"W3171538157","doi":"10.3390/vaccines9060592","title":"Could a New COVID-19 Mutant Strain Undermine Vaccination Efforts? A Mathematical Modelling Approach for Estimating the Spread of B.1.1.7 Using Ontario, Canada, as a Case Study","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Vaccines","topic":"SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research","field":"Medicine","cited_by":22,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"York University; Mount Allison University","funders":"","keywords":"Outbreak; Context (archaeology); Pandemic; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Vaccination; Population; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Virology; Strain (injury); Biology; Emerging infectious disease; Disease; Medicine; Environmental health","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006359796,0.0002388678,0.0005254644,0.00011999,0.000246125,0.0000561628,0.0001496687,0.00008880526,0.00006313335],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0009380218,0.0001723069,0.0001175578,0.0004325015,0.00001422208,0.00007923802,0.0000915436,0.0002622643,5.904213e-7],"about_ca_system_candidate":true,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006878446,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.008594167,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.7953271,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.7407913,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979563,0.00007507808,0.0005908289,0.0004266632,0.0005717414,0.0003793575],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9982395,0.0006361131,0.0001714713,0.0004871342,0.0003305864,0.0001352126],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.009104737,0.01854885,0.1572832,0.02849206,0.006908162,0.07111341,0.1751028,0.3995204,0.07803536,0.006794299,0.004547059,0.04454965],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.003819116,0.0002691916,0.0000777026,0.00009493143,0.0004273697,0.006883924,0.01513694,0.9677745,0.003660408,0.001341594,0.0003120744,0.0002022251],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7192189,0.0001174347,0.2786164,0.0003810277,0.00004685542,0.001438621,0.00001382003,0.00002401806,0.0001429107],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9587252,2.513781e-7,0.03797784,0.002867679,0.0001667806,0.0000870169,0.00001358809,0.00004165724,0.0001199928],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5682541,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9970262,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1297735756893661,"score_gpt":0.3890621117711384,"score_spread":0.2592885360817723,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}