{"id":"W3171538157","doi":"10.3390/vaccines9060592","title":"Could a New COVID-19 Mutant Strain Undermine Vaccination Efforts? A Mathematical Modelling Approach for Estimating the Spread of B.1.1.7 Using Ontario, Canada, as a Case Study","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Vaccines","topic":"SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research","field":"Medicine","cited_by":22,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"York University; Mount Allison University","funders":"","keywords":"Outbreak; Context (archaeology); Pandemic; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Vaccination; Population; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Virology; Strain (injury); Biology; Emerging infectious disease; Disease; Medicine; Environmental health","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001079711,0.0006509871,0.0004354988,0.0008541828,0.0006251792,0.0009423349,0.001412811,0.001148051,0.001168456],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003710558,0.0004538314,0.0006933659,0.0006359857,0.0007178352,0.0006340451,0.0005961001,0.0007010003,0.00008890577],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.009901559,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.007148956,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.8241087,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.7277679,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997078,0.00008391474,0.00001145272,0.00006553029,0.00003519969,0.00009612461],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9988562,0.0005635926,0.000238986,0.00003425032,0.0002310472,0.00007593694],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00007339661,0.00003920635,0.03742006,0.00005093051,0.00005537546,0.0002785828,0.0001612858,0.9500721,0.00085359,0.006180624,0.0008300717,0.003984871],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000009735699,0.0000237586,0.005301537,0.000008878948,0.00002303382,0.00002347643,0.0001506787,0.9931021,0.0001247031,0.0007007471,0.0005189209,0.00001246645],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9440219,0.0004105006,0.04610822,0.001435191,0.00002525506,0.0001532969,0.001752336,0.0000763143,0.00601712],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9873632,0.0001776553,0.009366713,0.00005980452,0.00000611468,0.00005121229,0.000485973,0.000007965385,0.002481384],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1758913,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3538544,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1297735756893661,"score_gpt":0.3890621117711384,"score_spread":0.2592885360817723,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}