{"id":"W3175028876","doi":"10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7305","title":"Estimating extreme sea levels combining systematic observed skew surges and historic record sea levels","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique","funders":"","keywords":"Surge; Skew; Tide gauge; Quantile; Return period; Coastal flood; Extreme value theory; Environmental science; Sea level; Bayesian probability; Storm surge; Inference; Climatology; Statistics; Oceanography; Geography; Computer science; Meteorology; Climate change; Geology; Sea level rise; Flood myth; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001831715,0.0003718593,0.0003667472,0.001030627,0.0001157118,0.0005245628,0.0003498276,0.0002658998,0.0007897388],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005227074,0.0003613098,0.0003648669,0.0007459945,0.0002936059,0.0006002926,0.0006516243,0.0002720477,0.000216087],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001940049,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000396234,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002685416,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004298945,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9994681,0.0002329548,0.00002882146,0.0001144996,0.000100049,0.00005547164],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9983554,0.000925173,0.0002938426,0.000192314,0.0001613894,0.00007187167],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001866075,0.0001087413,0.2693324,0.0001392319,0.000303562,0.0001843242,0.0003137816,0.3246306,0.01225298,0.002801138,0.0004712656,0.3892754],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0000179822,0.000131703,0.115473,0.00001755953,0.00006206431,0.0001166812,0.0001085606,0.8756664,0.003998211,0.003737309,0.0006352302,0.00003524561],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4512179,0.0001013868,0.5471653,0.00004797237,0.000008431518,0.00002274477,0.0001945106,0.0004088278,0.0008329916],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9172739,0.00008252885,0.08162854,0.00001016003,0.00002305691,0.00001665467,0.0004975068,0.00003824933,0.0004292655],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.002685416,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.009687126,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1842672104612303,"score_gpt":0.2778370878346369,"score_spread":0.0935698773734066,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}