{"id":"W3177397933","doi":"10.1007/s00181-023-02481-z","title":"Modeling interest rate setting at the European Central Bank with bargaining models and counterfactuals","year":2023,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Empirical Economics","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Dalhousie University","funders":"Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada; Government of Ontario","keywords":"Interest rate; Economics; Counterfactual thinking; Monetary policy; Counterfactual conditional; Forward guidance; Member states; Macroeconomics; Monetary economics; Voting; Central bank; International economics; Inflation targeting; Credit channel; European union; Political science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.007140933,0.001307898,0.002315175,0.001174756,0.0009177829,0.005619575,0.002902709,0.006030114,0.005978318],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02546043,0.001762826,0.001681961,0.001481368,0.002349332,0.00464593,0.001898368,0.003901325,0.0007067184],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002844225,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002536393,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01870807,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.006492715,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9971001,0.001904752,0.0001038092,0.000385167,0.0001882252,0.0003179911],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9888465,0.008649554,0.0009822188,0.0004053148,0.0005923173,0.0005241158],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0000692157,0.00004705624,0.0004744897,0.00001493821,0.00003286459,0.00006796602,0.0000465603,0.9380412,0.0001243056,0.05961051,0.0002771529,0.001193638],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002973332,0.00001121399,0.00009416861,0.000006462822,0.00001130238,0.000008493258,0.00001473756,0.9843606,0.00004774436,0.01524347,0.000163037,0.000009041993],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4226464,0.001915206,0.5318785,0.005043593,0.000603925,0.0001425644,0.0005004177,0.0003551573,0.03691431],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9706563,0.0004329889,0.01725588,0.0001786168,0.0001167668,0.000104705,0.0001786683,0.00007568047,0.01100038],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.01870807,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03776532,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1915326734730741,"score_gpt":0.2676563525725295,"score_spread":0.07612367909945539,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}