{"id":"W3182182782","doi":"10.3982/ecta20497","title":"The U.S. Public Debt Valuation Puzzle","year":2024,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Econometrica","topic":"Credit Risk and Financial Regulations","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":47,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Valuation (finance); Debt; Economics; Business; Accounting; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0009364074,0.0001176036,0.0001889366,0.0007656505,0.000486052,0.0006975458,0.0002831814,0.00007974904,0.0005838539],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0006429451,0.0001063528,0.0001637246,0.001824338,0.00007478241,0.0004331826,0.00005583752,0.0001499203,0.00570785],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001924412,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00004687412,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00003394542,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00004809335,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987125,0.00001084337,0.0005359544,0.0003736626,0.00004082099,0.0003261802],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9990571,0.0003333716,0.0001176845,0.0003700436,0.00003075281,0.00009108231],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000001196307,0.00001717696,0.007912332,0.000004990362,0.00002734258,0.000001253418,0.00006180719,0.00001157272,5.327771e-7,0.9210904,0.01033282,0.06053862],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00007062166,0.00001952341,0.05479013,0.00000266212,0.000003107112,0.00000285798,0.00001618005,0.007797346,0.000003750203,0.1336021,0.8035694,0.0001223058],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.1032007,0.1526052,0.06780965,0.04804697,0.01351087,0.0009804844,0.0004625413,0.0007165892,0.612667],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9918286,0.001551518,0.0002109436,0.0000314789,0.000500309,0.00007235009,0.00002753501,0.00002579042,0.005751543],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.8886279,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9950663,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05227435163739001,"score_gpt":0.24179541652893,"score_spread":0.18952106489154,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}