{"id":"W3182688712","doi":"10.1111/risa.13773","title":"A Multiperiod Model for Assessing the Socioeconomic Impacts of Oil Spills during Arctic Shipping","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Risk Analysis","topic":"Arctic and Russian Policy Studies","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":46,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Manitoba","funders":"","keywords":"Arctic; Oil spill; Environmental science; Bayesian network; The arctic; Environmental resource management; Indigenous; Livelihood; Environmental planning; Business; Geography; Oceanography; Environmental protection; Computer science; Ecology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["sts"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006553988,0.00009465076,0.000329013,0.00009288455,0.001529969,0.00008705362,0.0001497664,0.00005590926,0.00004676116],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0006715604,0.000070354,0.0004833879,0.0003918382,0.000256851,0.0001445076,0.00006153897,0.00009657128,0.000004357424],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001481652,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002292359,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.007185722,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01492111,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989142,0.0001631711,0.0002624983,0.0002023274,0.000146582,0.000311192],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9989823,0.0003864082,0.0002536228,0.0002016296,0.000109822,0.00006622192],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001700544,0.0001105854,0.7296439,0.0001813131,0.006546852,0.000003521443,0.2130091,0.03870121,0.0005821534,0.003257796,0.0001747278,0.007771793],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0009819657,0.00001066556,0.4384271,0.0001015342,0.008080088,0.000001110309,0.138133,0.4056379,0.0005911282,0.0067661,0.0006791013,0.0005902908],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9885994,0.0006996049,0.004228075,0.004926711,0.00003429324,0.00004912605,0.00002111467,0.00001862108,0.001423055],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9953462,0.001417862,0.001785857,0.00007957082,0.0001344623,0.00001308126,0.000002160737,0.000008180736,0.001212622],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.3669367,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9997699,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02683690404396859,"score_gpt":0.3480078534376545,"score_spread":0.3211709493936859,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}