{"id":"W3185142949","doi":"10.1371/journal.pone.0253043","title":"Rainfall, temperature, and Classic Maya conflict: A comparison of hypotheses using Bayesian time-series analysis","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"PLoS ONE","topic":"Archaeology and ancient environmental studies","field":"Earth and Planetary Sciences","cited_by":10,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Carleton University; Simon Fraser University","funders":"British Columbia Knowledge Development Fund; SFU Community Trust Endowment Fund; Canada Research Chairs; Simon Fraser University; Canada Foundation for Innovation; Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Climate change; Context (archaeology); Bayesian probability; Maya; Series (stratigraphy); Geography; Environmental science; Ecology; Statistics; Mathematics; Biology; Archaeology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.04153657,0.0006569671,0.001090996,0.004463254,0.0009168993,0.003294764,0.001983747,0.001309191,0.002973952],"category_scores_gemma":[0.1052058,0.0005005379,0.002316999,0.002836806,0.002835935,0.004082791,0.002533095,0.001448444,0.0001988763],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001172614,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0009317509,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006700356,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003497155,"domain_scores_codex":[0.986519,0.01042027,0.0007012349,0.0008255563,0.001219022,0.0003147805],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.7743501,0.2129937,0.007111265,0.002052111,0.002188971,0.001303914],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.005712957,0.0009292662,0.8012294,0.0008093425,0.004655058,0.0004710846,0.008273081,0.03741121,0.001640709,0.04063481,0.0007609641,0.09747219],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003226759,0.001274343,0.4876693,0.0005871325,0.00137158,0.0003426164,0.006697522,0.4246555,0.0006204473,0.07475498,0.001405968,0.0002979793],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9636958,0.001198607,0.03120661,0.0008474648,0.00003865386,0.0001261106,0.0001637617,0.00002726697,0.002695842],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9920665,0.0004867242,0.006801717,0.00009769046,0.00007293667,0.0000773413,0.0002443388,0.00001371298,0.0001389993],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.04153657,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.219669,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05870093593058728,"score_gpt":0.2256302618177903,"score_spread":0.166929325887203,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}