{"id":"W3186343296","doi":"10.1016/j.cell.2021.07.030","title":"Emergence of an early SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the United States","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Cell","topic":"SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research","field":"Medicine","cited_by":52,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto; BlueDot (Canada); St. Michael's Hospital","funders":"Small Business Innovation Research; National Institute of General Medical Sciences; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; Vlaamse regering; European Commission; Nvidia; National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences; Wellcome Trust; National Human Genome Research Institute; Advanced Micro Devices; National Institutes of Health; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Outbreak; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); Transmission (telecommunications); Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Biology; 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak; Sars virus; Pandemic; Scale (ratio); Virology; Betacoronavirus; Evolutionary biology; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Geography; Disease; Telecommunications; Cartography; Medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004733768,0.00008769971,0.0001847587,0.0001343268,0.00002633593,0.00001043552,0.0002059443,0.00006082105,0.0000314397],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001816799,0.00006323943,0.00005412825,0.0008528222,0.00007849445,0.00005087853,0.00004572501,0.000261194,0.00006390177],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00001427226,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001585521,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001772812,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001890965,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988362,0.0001933724,0.0002360722,0.0002006725,0.0002858711,0.000247772],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9991586,0.0001908569,0.00004165942,0.0004428424,0.0001490113,0.00001699921],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"bench_or_experimental","study_design_gemma":"bench_or_experimental","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0000861575,0.0002848545,0.04457775,0.0001285031,0.00001164972,0.0002770488,0.002334685,0.000002081448,0.9491293,0.00004526593,0.002225615,0.0008970536],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0006383754,0.0001872524,0.009873834,0.00004074589,0.00001577954,0.00000998575,0.001591752,0.001432286,0.9579063,0.0003639933,0.02786681,0.00007291151],"study_design_candidate":"bench_or_experimental","study_design_consensus":"bench_or_experimental","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9947788,0.0005194908,0.00004237388,0.0004310388,0.00005158072,0.0001550629,0.00000541773,0.00001514316,0.004001088],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9757727,0.00003947032,0.0001368641,0.02388471,0.00004499788,0.00001156179,0.00001950519,0.00001386461,0.00007629341],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03470391,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2679972,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07425925194641968,"score_gpt":0.3753492028250504,"score_spread":0.3010899508786307,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}