{"id":"W3191406239","doi":"10.3386/w29091","title":"A Synthetic Model of Disruption and Experimentation","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"report","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Auction Theory and Applications","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Anticipation (artificial intelligence); Competition (biology); Context (archaeology); Economics; Microeconomics; Industrial organization; Business; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003483924,0.0009208372,0.001059597,0.001319309,0.001111766,0.004740034,0.003192715,0.004421576,0.02501641],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01128631,0.0005594576,0.001778306,0.001512343,0.003701732,0.003937196,0.003090328,0.002538883,0.001734286],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002922073,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002142734,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003392891,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001793095,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9965545,0.001807111,0.0001554364,0.0005455983,0.0004853757,0.0004519617],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.990042,0.005828173,0.001267163,0.001426858,0.0005421286,0.0008936536],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002515834,0.0001316702,0.0008263278,0.0001062609,0.00004726088,0.0003387501,0.0002543451,0.1669572,0.0008286065,0.8242329,0.001575324,0.004449795],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003197793,0.0002705319,0.0006136951,0.00004507316,0.00004471097,0.0003028291,0.0002154587,0.4477443,0.000280401,0.5357515,0.01435207,0.00005952484],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.1741119,0.00130859,0.5370921,0.01229024,0.0006049164,0.0008195922,0.002627341,0.0006146985,0.2705306],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8995873,0.0009662006,0.04154923,0.0007242798,0.0001834041,0.0008077421,0.0005259297,0.00007670509,0.05557913],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.02501641,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.0836882,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.7466121352298398,"score_gpt":0.6556433557078595,"score_spread":0.09096877952198035,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}