{"id":"W3195435566","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3550053","title":"Early Detection of Bipolar Disorder Four Years Before Onset in a 22-Year Population-Based Birth Cohort Using Advanced Machine Learning Techniques","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Bipolar Disorder and Treatment","field":"Medicine","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"McMaster University","funders":"","keywords":"Bipolar disorder; Cohort; Population; Psychology; Demography; Medicine; Psychiatry; Sociology; Cognition; Internal medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007323376,0.0003897149,0.0004058559,0.0009672532,0.0006944796,0.001005483,0.0005709041,0.0008705134,0.001591411],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002228116,0.0005124942,0.0008212666,0.0006215391,0.000214755,0.0005641844,0.0004716768,0.001160602,0.0003292754],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003201685,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003900394,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01980951,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0203519,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996871,0.00008164608,0.00002436933,0.0001068945,0.00003739784,0.00006264203],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9989184,0.0002701033,0.000327223,0.0001143599,0.0001337738,0.0002361527],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001286371,0.00004252974,0.998318,0.000002796529,0.0000519079,0.00009278459,0.00004221737,0.00004774065,0.0003388253,0.00001423549,0.00006915448,0.0008512189],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000004408626,0.00005533431,0.9989876,0.000004503319,0.00003478397,0.0001613151,0.0001463326,0.0004796436,0.00004456947,0.00002673193,0.00005125587,0.000003584652],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9991971,0.0001452583,0.0001267687,0.00005232819,0.00001524146,0.00000321947,0.0002685415,0.000005341697,0.0001861746],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9989942,0.000122564,0.000139077,0.00001946559,0.00001444864,0.000003601796,0.0003712874,0.000002864245,0.0003324392],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01980951,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.03938842,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.006856148748685863,"score_gpt":0.2438247094568283,"score_spread":0.2369685607081424,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}