{"id":"W3195827567","doi":"10.3847/2515-5172/ac1ea0","title":"Forecasting Solar Cycle 25 with a Principled Bayesian Two-stage Statistical Model","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Research Notes of the AAS","topic":"Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics","field":"Physics and Astronomy","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"","keywords":"Hindcast; Bayesian probability; Sunspot number; Solar cycle 24; Environmental science; Bayesian inference; Statistics; Solar cycle; Meteorology; Mathematics; Physics; Nuclear physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.000539386,0.0001061383,0.0001763957,0.00004134433,0.000258926,0.00007699739,0.0002949148,0.00002699839,0.0001254717],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002635578,0.00007348067,0.00007585045,0.0002758388,0.0001604626,0.00007925373,0.0003419688,0.000460503,0.000007536366],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0000320522,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003810688,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0003871428,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0002250541,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9984525,0.0001828064,0.0001543122,0.000229052,0.0005336996,0.0004475885],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9984177,0.000692095,0.0000523927,0.0004653286,0.0002630078,0.0001094261],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003017673,0.000764187,0.3219263,0.0002142253,0.0004548474,0.00006707442,0.001754168,0.3822496,0.009514071,0.2723443,0.0002054181,0.01020395],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0005034625,0.00003803164,0.0007494337,0.00005416625,0.00001360984,0.000001882917,0.0003549213,0.9797558,0.006326347,0.01205077,0.00005626292,0.00009526989],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7560744,0.00001362165,0.2366025,0.0004850927,0.00002086507,0.000209251,0.0001906579,0.00001089472,0.006392761],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9764611,8.648709e-7,0.02248611,0.000008882981,0.00004928938,0.00001387284,0.00002247699,0.00002313755,0.0009342849],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5975062,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2996455,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0706218915310705,"score_gpt":0.3558343261990928,"score_spread":0.2852124346680223,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}