{"id":"W3195827567","doi":"10.3847/2515-5172/ac1ea0","title":"Forecasting Solar Cycle 25 with a Principled Bayesian Two-stage Statistical Model","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Research Notes of the AAS","topic":"Solar and Space Plasma Dynamics","field":"Physics and Astronomy","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"","keywords":"Hindcast; Bayesian probability; Sunspot number; Solar cycle 24; Environmental science; Bayesian inference; Statistics; Solar cycle; Meteorology; Mathematics; Physics; Nuclear physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002488806,0.0006738892,0.001197825,0.0008245474,0.000436863,0.001086219,0.001302608,0.001025722,0.001843688],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005281108,0.0008507168,0.0007744418,0.0006389127,0.0006583303,0.0009109119,0.0007111487,0.001117105,0.0002610728],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00111099,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001238037,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02931848,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.02139418,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9994848,0.0002498196,0.000019041,0.0001142584,0.00007825803,0.00005382115],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9977314,0.001584571,0.0002492667,0.0000730212,0.0002630276,0.00009879833],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00002915392,0.00001509176,0.001237755,0.000006153486,0.00002024755,0.00001192515,0.000009066732,0.9930732,0.00009793014,0.002256667,0.0002604181,0.002982432],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000003674208,0.000004201844,0.0001996545,8.790726e-7,0.00000221765,0.000001335828,7.717469e-7,0.9988493,0.00001534327,0.0008765182,0.00004278072,0.000003240567],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4322894,0.0005352601,0.5590789,0.001476204,0.0001373123,0.0001223341,0.001122596,0.0005237649,0.004714271],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9617471,0.0001921324,0.03418669,0.0001318178,0.00008191122,0.0001122388,0.0006337706,0.00004266428,0.002871759],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.02931848,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05829567,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0706218915310705,"score_gpt":0.3558343261990928,"score_spread":0.2852124346680223,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}