{"id":"W3196655296","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3700692","title":"Cross-Sectional Uncertainty and the Business Cycle: Evidence from 40 Years of Options Data","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":18,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Business cycle; Econometrics; Business; Economics; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00255346,0.00008099373,0.0002246215,0.00003765165,0.0001377444,0.0001113076,0.0005419397,0.00005376069,0.0001747254],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0008418648,0.00007309896,0.0000577453,0.0002086102,0.0001663166,0.0003261681,0.0001809905,0.0006770993,0.000008298425],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001228367,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003095753,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001506787,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0005071085,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9986916,0.00004092089,0.000466774,0.0002863538,0.00005981086,0.0004545351],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9990137,0.0002315047,0.0003268406,0.0003106131,0.00006260259,0.00005477076],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004407939,0.00003047537,0.7931008,0.00001217764,0.0002022114,7.994243e-7,0.0001844757,0.0007109767,0.00001127595,0.2018163,0.00003539447,0.003454375],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0006701163,0.00002349897,0.5756532,0.000007561469,0.00000868495,0.00001257653,0.00004623285,0.1354027,1.832441e-7,0.2873687,0.000726647,0.00007985108],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9720737,0.01029993,0.01446817,0.002320392,0.0001654844,0.00009624231,0.0003447707,0.000007609392,0.0002236597],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9893112,0.01015488,0.0001304669,0.0000891934,0.0002009958,0.000001761755,0.0000261794,0.000008764117,0.00007653218],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2174476,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2980889,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04599648895502217,"score_gpt":0.2668405101417377,"score_spread":0.2208440211867155,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}