{"id":"W3198874359","doi":"","title":"Do Corporate Managers Believe in Luck? Evidence of the Chinese Zodiac Effect","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Luck; Perception; Quarter (Canadian coin); Risk perception; Cash; Monetary economics; Business; Economics; Psychology; Social psychology; Finance; History; Philosophy","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002991516,0.00020717,0.0003058238,0.0008232037,0.0007911466,0.001075501,0.0004571847,0.0006458809,0.005389095],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01056034,0.000207315,0.0002589039,0.001131782,0.002197936,0.0006739403,0.0009878461,0.0007247805,0.0003473177],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001115711,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0009968024,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.03618171,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0326202,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988449,0.0003244576,0.00007189566,0.0001600961,0.000336387,0.0002622528],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9750561,0.008584855,0.01135222,0.00181731,0.001503691,0.001685763],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005272302,0.0001410507,0.976568,0.0000921391,0.00009727689,0.0002307176,0.01026933,0.0001293739,0.0008822362,0.001297701,0.0004949267,0.009270098],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001189165,0.00004331691,0.9969835,0.000007956831,0.00002015653,0.00001629228,0.00227133,0.0001095208,0.00007042524,0.0001140436,0.00034392,0.000007685783],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.99683,0.0001405205,0.00003619801,0.0004240298,0.000005246663,0.000005403921,0.00004199587,0.000001344352,0.00251513],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9995931,0.00007421157,0.0000145633,0.00007692989,0.000008362292,0.000002700963,0.00002918827,6.031999e-7,0.0002003777],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03618171,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.07194221,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04086957543008059,"score_gpt":0.2830835864723753,"score_spread":0.2422140110422947,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}