{"id":"W3202355324","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3924900","title":"What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt/Output Ratio? The Dogs that Didn't Bark","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Fiscal Policies and Political Economy","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":9,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Variation (astronomy); Bark (sound); Debt; Economics; Monetary economics; Internal medicine; Financial system; Business; Medicine; Geography; Finance; Forestry; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001672819,0.0001428306,0.0003144946,0.0006260951,0.000619075,0.002304961,0.0003396016,0.001077069,0.004747614],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01092452,0.0002326285,0.0002528331,0.001257757,0.001204537,0.001226143,0.0005361972,0.001208367,0.0007402058],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0009556545,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007234357,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.03153631,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.03542954,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992379,0.0002709075,0.00004033429,0.0002480682,0.00007186471,0.0001309485],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9960359,0.001383262,0.001136945,0.0004097119,0.0005334502,0.000500795],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001838797,0.0001057485,0.9404379,0.00005652188,0.0002196624,0.0002089997,0.001453417,0.001485867,0.0005316451,0.01251974,0.01664638,0.02615028],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003086272,0.00007180712,0.9632501,0.00008842844,0.00006607484,0.0001098108,0.003726936,0.003000012,0.0002480515,0.01182526,0.01754924,0.0000334132],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9611888,0.001741774,0.0007602573,0.01992021,0.0002664388,0.00001620163,0.00117991,0.00007353275,0.01485303],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9977763,0.0002136853,0.0001106159,0.000768489,0.00006684897,0.000002822866,0.0002042344,0.00002625274,0.0008307394],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.03153631,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.06270552,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.016552783357178,"score_gpt":0.2169636114778129,"score_spread":0.2004108281206349,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}