{"id":"W3204046857","doi":"10.1029/2021ef002150","title":"Probabilistic Evaluation of Drought in CMIP6 Simulations","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Earth s Future","topic":"Hydrology and Drought Analysis","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":40,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Global Institute for Water Security; University of Saskatchewan; University of Calgary","funders":"Division of Electrical, Communications and Cyber Systems; Global Water Futures; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Nuclear Safety and Security Commission; National Aeronautics and Space Administration; Pacific Institute for the Mathematical Sciences; Division of Mathematical Sciences; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Precipitation; Probabilistic logic; Climate model; Variance (accounting); Strengths and weaknesses; Statistical model; Contrast (vision); Climate change","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.008141762,0.0005536099,0.0005099227,0.0009502514,0.000365873,0.000740356,0.0007263878,0.0006725463,0.0004650643],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02420465,0.0003463133,0.0005172367,0.0008720277,0.0004662906,0.001152931,0.0008260762,0.0006088847,0.00005968114],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001183075,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007613511,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.008165917,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004954754,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998362,0.0009742964,0.0001437127,0.0001924534,0.0002362008,0.00009125766],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9859952,0.009968834,0.001137423,0.001206286,0.001411599,0.0002805981],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00008944529,0.00001923366,0.01795958,0.00002497192,0.00008078243,0.00002159494,0.00003232612,0.9773885,0.0003688382,0.0009451433,0.0001502052,0.002919456],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001092818,0.0000507946,0.004729645,0.000006634933,0.00001334214,0.00001360294,0.00001783827,0.9933423,0.0007478362,0.0009112513,0.0001451004,0.00001074458],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9640798,0.0002176004,0.03273552,0.0002174838,0.00002541639,0.00005196526,0.00101808,0.0004150021,0.001239138],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.995322,0.00002967193,0.00424013,0.00001319585,0.000004764945,0.00001549187,0.0003236433,0.00001251471,0.00003852477],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.008165917,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04305822,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01338588827231506,"score_gpt":0.2595027850013529,"score_spread":0.2461168967290379,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}