{"id":"W3204335110","doi":"10.1186/s40345-021-00235-3","title":"The futility of long-term predictions in bipolar disorder: mood fluctuations are the result of deterministic chaotic processes","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Journal of Bipolar Disorders","topic":"Bipolar Disorder and Treatment","field":"Medicine","cited_by":13,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Royal Ottawa Mental Health Centre; Centre for Addiction and Mental Health; Nova Scotia Health Authority; University of Ottawa; Dalhousie University; University of Toronto","funders":"","keywords":"Detrended fluctuation analysis; Lyapunov exponent; Mood; Correlation dimension; Bipolar disorder; Fractal dimension; Series (stratigraphy); Autocorrelation; Psychology; Mathematics; Statistical physics; Nonlinear system; Statistics; Fractal; Clinical psychology; Physics; Mathematical analysis","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0004063521,0.0001751932,0.0003449598,0.0002260105,0.0001454112,0.00003513151,0.0004326903,0.0000796376,0.00004401281],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001411113,0.0001104571,0.0002680913,0.0005106383,0.0003355742,0.0001529165,0.00008384438,0.0003574504,0.000002104619],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00008952137,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000701756,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001235921,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.009843601,"domain_scores_codex":[0.997696,0.0001476809,0.0009745999,0.0001791646,0.0008031517,0.0001994208],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9970426,0.000525636,0.0007343331,0.0003417208,0.001278143,0.00007759844],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002305313,0.001573068,0.9378314,0.0001321732,0.0007513756,0.00001778187,0.0008569849,0.0001645515,0.0003150821,0.0001749036,0.00001750274,0.05793466],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002226009,0.0002698341,0.9887009,0.0003648423,0.0003258208,0.0002469687,0.001746782,0.0002201132,0.0008322504,0.0007047227,0.004271277,0.00009050596],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8288399,0.1576609,0.002205768,0.009575616,0.0007995612,0.0004763987,0.0002333181,0.00001432351,0.0001942352],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9730434,0.02662081,0.00008634634,0.00003383736,0.0000840298,0.00001456275,0.00003434791,0.00001834195,0.00006428311],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1442035,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.549296,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01286628907325088,"score_gpt":0.2872004925858868,"score_spread":0.2743342035126359,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}