{"id":"W3207000390","doi":"10.3386/w29368","title":"Falling Rates and Rising Superstars","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"report","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":24,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Falling (accident); Economics; Demographic economics; Medicine; Environmental health","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001351544,0.0001957342,0.0003688519,0.001041255,0.0005840565,0.0022287,0.0003985687,0.0005047685,0.01308605],"category_scores_gemma":[0.009940074,0.0001583886,0.0003174676,0.001021246,0.0007479328,0.0008178206,0.001021213,0.001146594,0.001455311],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005856209,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003442586,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006756855,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.006646869,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9989616,0.0001928077,0.00006902572,0.0002041427,0.0003030047,0.0002694938],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9931463,0.002242354,0.00285962,0.0004622482,0.0006700659,0.0006193383],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0007944299,0.0002262798,0.7627004,0.0001731397,0.0001764757,0.001029974,0.003478132,0.005337405,0.002912262,0.1271419,0.0139025,0.08212705],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00008174716,0.0004102687,0.9033379,0.00008579784,0.0001312645,0.0006677216,0.003112915,0.0153309,0.002510176,0.04417067,0.03010295,0.00005779713],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9334869,0.0003165329,0.002192801,0.0006993362,0.00005368216,0.00002125591,0.000690304,0.00008794421,0.06245136],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9951062,0.0001130807,0.0003550962,0.0001675632,0.00003162041,0.000007432022,0.0004720915,0.00001969961,0.003727138],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01308605,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04377723,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.6180478575342415,"score_gpt":0.4877992225640311,"score_spread":0.1302486349702104,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}