{"id":"W3207320186","doi":"10.3390/jrfm14100494","title":"Sovereign Default Forecasting in the Era of the COVID-19 Crisis","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of risk and financial management","topic":"Credit Risk and Financial Regulations","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":7,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Default; Sovereign default; Sovereignty; Business; Financial crisis; Pandemic; Economics; Credit risk; Financial economics; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Financial system; Actuarial science; Finance; Political science; Macroeconomics; Sovereign debt; Medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001132245,0.00009420233,0.0002912812,0.0001258385,0.0001951008,0.0000446894,0.0002484788,0.00005639863,0.0000282627],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0007896313,0.00006833639,0.000185604,0.0005311052,0.00005541511,0.0001091348,0.0001004091,0.0003006839,0.000002160616],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00006034166,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0000613727,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002174221,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000259723,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988275,0.00004562613,0.0007306034,0.0001438346,0.00009421122,0.0001582229],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9988561,0.0001292516,0.0006993426,0.0002151,0.00005407685,0.00004610277],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00006481244,0.0002016285,0.2963072,0.00007097455,0.00002972062,0.00009966386,0.003986215,0.001879147,0.000001435625,0.6380241,0.008951187,0.05038389],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0008423182,0.00004702963,0.6309836,0.0000318434,0.0000353456,0.00004208399,0.001147166,0.0001747958,0.0000075979,0.1670969,0.1994865,0.0001048998],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9354759,0.006579177,0.04670097,0.004244741,0.0009116217,0.0002622433,0.000125215,0.000004043378,0.005696125],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9953702,0.002978358,0.0009376057,0.0004752107,0.0001785333,0.000004275262,0.000001105712,0.000006492515,0.00004823296],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4709273,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2786677,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03245786691090538,"score_gpt":0.2320894015567982,"score_spread":0.1996315346458928,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}