{"id":"W3208573340","doi":"10.1038/s41558-021-01173-9","title":"Next-generation ensemble projections reveal higher climate risks for marine ecosystems","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Nature Climate Change","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":288,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"McGill University; Memorial University of Newfoundland; University of British Columbia; Fisheries and Oceans Canada; Dalhousie University","funders":"Australian Research Council; Horizon 2020 Framework Programme; Jarislowsky Foundation; Ocean Frontier Institute; University of New South Wales; Agence Nationale de la Recherche; Sight Research UK; Biodiversa+; European Commission; Belmont Forum; Natural Environment Research Council; UK Research and Innovation; California Ocean Protection Council; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Alfred P. Sloan Foundation; Marine Environmental Observation Prediction and Response Network; Open Philanthropy Project; Compute Canada; Simons Foundation","keywords":"Environmental science; Marine ecosystem; Climate change; Ecosystem; Climate extremes; Environmental resource management; Climatology; Oceanography; Natural resource economics; Ecology; Geology; Biology; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005085281,0.0002388366,0.0002761846,0.00004599405,0.0004447514,0.0001227981,0.0001584844,0.0004567519,0.002501618],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00006844068,0.0002256567,0.0001519346,0.000328269,0.00004580175,0.0004822198,0.0003710597,0.0003667413,0.0001892906],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002811371,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001318771,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002294199,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003500152,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9980056,0.00009197301,0.000340714,0.0006690985,0.0002647249,0.0006278566],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9991297,0.00009077296,0.0001346174,0.0004619354,0.00006193396,0.0001210231],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"bench_or_experimental","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005213721,0.002533224,0.1282796,0.002258917,0.0001778535,0.0001227993,0.003568118,0.0008654731,0.7019452,0.03056772,0.08399109,0.04516863],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.005995834,0.0008360543,0.06104989,0.0004031441,0.0006391341,0.0002690819,0.0008671493,0.09193441,0.07018618,0.007251531,0.7572039,0.003363641],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.943597,0.0004719678,0.0002192371,0.005136089,0.004813205,0.002677911,0.00113816,0.0003505413,0.04159592],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.989608,0.001073992,0.003088209,0.001517936,0.001528922,0.0008472416,0.001236886,0.00005732021,0.001041448],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6732129,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9984102,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1447759839804024,"score_gpt":0.3234437247154999,"score_spread":0.1786677407350975,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}