{"id":"W3209118477","doi":"10.1002/fut.22283","title":"Market uncertainty and sentiment around USDA announcements","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Futures Markets","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":24,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; Egg Farmers of Canada; National Institute of Food and Agriculture; Agricultural and Applied Economics Association; Economic Research Service; U.S. Department of Agriculture","keywords":"Volatility (finance); Commodity; Economics; Index (typography); Commodity market; Financial economics; Agriculture; Market sentiment; Implied volatility; Monetary economics; Econometrics; Finance; Computer science; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001709686,0.0001604829,0.0004529229,0.0001387885,0.000115561,0.0001533417,0.0001642837,0.00009238091,0.001719834],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002466511,0.0001598657,0.0001683106,0.0001613344,0.0000436616,0.0002258982,0.0001023233,0.0002458107,0.000004347673],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001213782,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0000579219,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00001794834,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00002178385,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9984762,0.00007447821,0.0008397008,0.0002583441,0.0001084196,0.0002428495],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986339,0.0001076265,0.0006980108,0.0002525634,0.0001541598,0.0001536976],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0008934916,0.0006446142,0.8853469,0.0002538875,0.0009335431,0.0003975035,0.0004506742,0.00004177145,0.000210772,0.01101073,0.08368292,0.01613317],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001817619,0.0001235531,0.4714126,0.00008269993,0.00003693094,0.0002536174,0.0003497144,0.02167802,0.00001459715,0.03619826,0.4676617,0.0003706815],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9118062,0.00837383,0.0007824489,0.001558472,0.001997049,0.0001174553,0.0002263091,0.000007746187,0.07513053],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9911016,0.002121299,0.001398239,0.0004867713,0.0004269652,0.000001970095,0.00001487778,0.00001745733,0.00443083],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4139343,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9991927,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01518441842647585,"score_gpt":0.2274226722769776,"score_spread":0.2122382538505018,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}