{"id":"W3209159738","doi":"10.1101/2021.11.04.21265886","title":"The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"medRxiv","topic":"COVID-19 epidemiological studies","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":52,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Quest for Intelligence, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Plant Sciences Institute, Iowa State University; Advanced Research Projects Agency; National Institute of General Medical Sciences; University of Massachusetts Amherst; Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health; University of California, San Diego; Iowa State University; North Carolina State University; Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung; University of California, Santa Barbara; Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; National Institutes of Health; Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Klaus Tschira Stiftung; San Diego Supercomputer Center; Hôpitaux Universitaires de Genève; Division of Materials Research; Center for Emerging Infectious Diseases, University of Iowa; Defense Threat Reduction Agency; Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists; Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation; Wellcome Trust; Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis; University of Michigan; National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases; California Institute of Technology; Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation; Los Alamos National Laboratory; Johns Hopkins University; Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation; U.S. Department of Homeland Security; Laboratory Directed Research and Development; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Leverage (statistics); Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Download; Government (linguistics); Pandemic; Disease control; Computer science; Scale (ratio); Consensus forecast; Data science; Business; Econometrics; Geography; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Economics; Machine learning; World Wide Web; Environmental health; Medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaresearch","metaepi_narrow"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003663701,0.0005206691,0.0009062196,0.0000981293,0.0006614189,0.000199332,0.001325258,0.000337105,0.0003130245],"category_scores_gemma":[0.05834236,0.0003127094,0.0002638398,0.0003761228,0.0004443601,0.00003453596,0.004514802,0.001108377,0.00005336852],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003215233,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002716975,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001619542,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00190624,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9960036,0.001098699,0.0008988381,0.0008925606,0.0004664962,0.000639777],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9752354,0.02181453,0.0005419385,0.001924655,0.0001711981,0.0003122604],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009254176,0.0002654508,0.03628127,0.002168188,0.001005871,0.0003408663,0.001935448,0.002697752,0.00001643575,0.01320864,0.9411804,0.0008071139],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002289976,0.00003021973,0.001876658,0.00009355057,0.0001449953,0.000006288306,0.0007199335,0.002097491,0.00002098546,0.2167566,0.7776077,0.0004166335],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":"not_applicable","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8058205,0.005211116,0.04451098,0.1221736,0.00242044,0.003008752,0.01506032,0.001162825,0.0006313996],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.6215485,0.05347722,0.04008715,0.1510282,0.003334681,0.004760538,0.1197289,0.0008310722,0.005203793],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2035479,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999325,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4000434505669178,"score_gpt":0.4651570160288483,"score_spread":0.06511356546193053,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}