{"id":"W3211087980","doi":"10.1111/obes.12466","title":"Systemic Financial Stress and Macroeconomic Amplifications in the United Kingdom*","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":6,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Financial crisis; Vector autoregression; Index (typography); Economics; Composite index; Financial market; Composite indicator; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Monetary economics; Financial system; Macroeconomics; Finance; Medicine; Internal medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005295824,0.0001877783,0.0002481293,0.0008089658,0.000184569,0.00124643,0.0001404093,0.0002678825,0.002159659],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003363326,0.0001007918,0.0001632012,0.001330899,0.0003680264,0.0004937273,0.001031575,0.0003058775,0.0002208341],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001406944,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005577315,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.07237794,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.06792662,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996532,0.0000854209,0.00005538057,0.0000477196,0.00008083741,0.00007743188],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9973748,0.0003467803,0.001372924,0.00009462515,0.0005150313,0.0002958352],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002404221,0.00002729462,0.9707193,0.0001189048,0.00008688187,0.000554618,0.001538232,0.00127452,0.0006935637,0.001211896,0.002837542,0.02069677],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000004277559,0.00003178574,0.996573,0.00003898439,0.00001192582,0.00009948929,0.0009358298,0.0004548894,0.00008133029,0.0001523646,0.001608505,0.000007694497],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9944004,0.001014902,0.0000997547,0.000932634,0.0000302476,0.000004208153,0.0006802981,0.000004524016,0.002833003],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9992632,0.0002272698,0.00002620677,0.00004693144,0.000008907361,0.000001837572,0.0001972604,9.634621e-7,0.0002273526],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.07237794,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1439133,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02894072179484513,"score_gpt":0.2253644681211982,"score_spread":0.1964237463263531,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}