{"id":"W3212787358","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.2022.4385","title":"A Hard Look at SPAC Projections","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Management Science","topic":"Auditing, Earnings Management, Governance","field":"Business, Management and Accounting","cited_by":55,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Initial public offering; Benchmark (surveying); Revenue; Quarter (Canadian coin); Sample (material); Business; Econometrics; Economics; Accounting","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","sts","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.0015017,0.0002401038,0.0001701549,0.0008264972,0.003308277,0.0005904963,0.001518608,0.00001435952,0.002830193],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0005904042,0.0002623115,0.00008977834,0.003702447,0.0003520197,0.001617781,0.006130398,0.0002314448,0.001843192],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005759367,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0000243186,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002545667,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00003553099,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9962879,0.00001440679,0.0002918858,0.0009630005,0.001661957,0.0007808161],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9953221,0.00001472166,0.003879489,0.0006831064,0.00007477192,0.00002581455],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00008542878,0.0005262233,0.1032134,0.0004645194,0.0001063299,0.0002591582,0.0003621458,0.01146986,0.00238525,0.4799903,0.2760245,0.125113],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003840795,0.00001641262,0.07714332,0.00001502622,0.00004827687,0.000003935276,0.0007166603,0.003252358,0.00002572421,0.001230348,0.9168068,0.0003570335],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.2577185,0.00005187149,0.04329547,0.004138807,0.002284009,0.001673184,0.000007883542,0.0009078544,0.6899225],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9069782,0.000009160693,0.0007599103,0.004684624,0.0003495923,0.0003805789,0.00001224122,0.0000377245,0.086788],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.6492597,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999829,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01325258345356468,"score_gpt":0.2163065790671714,"score_spread":0.2030539956136067,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}