{"id":"W3214748115","doi":"10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110160","title":"The ex post accuracy of subjective beliefs: A new measure and decomposition","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Economics Letters","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Western University","funders":"Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada; Spencer Foundation; Andrew W. Mellon Foundation; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Measure (data warehouse); Decomposition; Aggregate (composite); Probabilistic logic; Econometrics; Ex-ante; Computer science; Economics; Artificial intelligence; Data mining; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003743328,0.0001638724,0.0003579271,0.00009293741,0.0001659643,0.0001346296,0.0001847162,0.00007331262,0.0001356913],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001436058,0.0001782672,0.0001382438,0.0000634645,0.00009513168,0.0003739441,0.00007252749,0.0001419931,0.0001679349],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00011336,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00004083365,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0008446344,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0002920978,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9986895,0.00002302018,0.0006060682,0.0003702733,0.0000124713,0.0002986534],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9987911,0.0002672655,0.0004259093,0.0003847111,0.00001262371,0.0001184009],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001065958,0.0004904972,0.2955901,0.0002712312,0.00412186,0.00005593701,0.02296596,0.0228798,0.02251289,0.5108461,0.0727054,0.0464942],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.007321432,0.000412663,0.6379855,0.0001321036,0.0001047715,0.0003665452,0.001288753,0.01626812,0.01579509,0.1059846,0.2117576,0.002582754],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9726278,0.001676246,0.0004435771,0.02089754,0.0003839747,0.0001392004,0.0001524213,0.00001305674,0.003666159],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9937971,0.001223939,0.0005570161,0.003815808,0.0002484938,0.000005129286,0.00002916662,0.00002512019,0.0002982078],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4048615,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7269527,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03280378867395966,"score_gpt":0.2175672316477824,"score_spread":0.1847634429738227,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}