{"id":"W3216355955","doi":"10.1086/718209","title":"The 2016 Election and America’s Standing Abroad: Quasi-Experimental Evidence of a Trump Effect","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Journal of Politics","topic":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":23,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Ottawa","funders":"","keywords":"Victory; Presidential election; Political science; Politics; Public opinion; Government (linguistics); Natural experiment; National election; Administration (probate law); Foreign policy; Presidential system; Latin Americans; Political economy; Public administration; Economics; Law","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001411981,0.00005156119,0.0001397062,0.00001911523,0.0004211691,0.00004735199,0.00009896393,0.00003018924,0.00001922583],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0009098757,0.00002775451,0.0000522384,0.0001294333,0.0002873256,0.0001243495,0.00001668083,0.0001185215,0.000001829805],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001360939,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002216809,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002266505,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0003242286,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9982144,0.0009219203,0.000278449,0.00003836454,0.0003182247,0.0002286712],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9979078,0.001529238,0.0002245505,0.00007451125,0.0001674549,0.00009643133],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"bench_or_experimental","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0007127878,0.0005902335,0.03804461,0.0002453403,0.000424693,0.00002518099,0.06596024,0.0000526839,0.2895632,0.5874798,0.009565609,0.007335565],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00238987,0.0150157,0.02695664,0.002854147,0.0009098791,0.0003507253,0.05123553,0.0007334287,0.7641274,0.0564006,0.07825378,0.0007723105],"study_design_candidate":"bench_or_experimental","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9915288,0.004076753,0.0002349926,0.003061975,0.0002595216,0.00007189818,0.000001296937,0.000003472483,0.0007613074],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9987587,0.0003389996,0.00001771133,0.00006617748,0.000363995,8.735723e-7,6.186774e-8,0.000003801784,0.0004496484],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.5310792,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3426292,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0403290128798115,"score_gpt":0.4083105942234561,"score_spread":0.3679815813436446,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}