{"id":"W4200281219","doi":"10.1111/cdev.13718","title":"Causal knowledge and children’s possibility judgments","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Child Development","topic":"Child and Animal Learning Development","field":"Psychology","cited_by":10,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Psychology; Developmental psychology; Event (particle physics); Causal reasoning; Social psychology; Cognitive psychology; Cognition","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.000332228,0.0002793874,0.0002970003,0.00008136176,0.000385699,0.00006704422,0.000151949,0.0001223952,0.001758896],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00005724042,0.0002657765,0.00005767122,0.0002138058,0.00007288713,0.00005543081,0.0002965572,0.0003227939,0.0009568108],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001224998,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002550698,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00001312035,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00004366102,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979341,0.000114499,0.0004258587,0.0008479802,0.0002084994,0.0004690889],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9991926,0.00004753347,0.000078652,0.0003674629,0.00008589154,0.0002278912],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00006435378,0.001077547,0.8574662,0.0000460303,0.0004948364,0.0001141002,0.01531894,5.861094e-7,0.0001118761,0.005883057,0.009301522,0.110121],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0008459691,0.00002473305,0.9154955,0.00008167023,0.00001339064,0.0001977918,0.0001534222,7.185265e-7,0.001109547,0.00007222367,0.08167286,0.0003322429],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9165183,0.003602094,0.00007415424,0.0005237747,0.0007372783,0.0002136503,0.000006769732,0.0001310854,0.07819284],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9879757,0.00004243238,0.002318299,0.0006949261,0.0001713552,0.00003432825,0.0001069813,0.00003244554,0.008623555],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1097887,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999794,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01637556469909726,"score_gpt":0.2863974154381959,"score_spread":0.2700218507390986,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}