{"id":"W4200484322","doi":"10.1002/essoar.10509861.1","title":"The 2021 “Complex systems” Nobel prize:The climate, with and without geocomplexity","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"McGill University","funders":"","keywords":"General Circulation Model; Climate science; Climate system; Climate model; Meteorology; Climatology; Climate change; Statistical physics; Geophysics; Physics; Geology; Oceanography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002930647,0.001285923,0.001076274,0.0008958188,0.001120518,0.004898393,0.0005844582,0.002808156,0.02330819],"category_scores_gemma":[0.005395302,0.0002724485,0.0007817429,0.001002191,0.001918136,0.003846273,0.002073788,0.004502255,0.01015024],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002105796,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001789946,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0009607981,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000957683,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990144,0.000319815,0.00003136925,0.0001805667,0.0003047546,0.0001491646],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9976851,0.0007540691,0.00008468485,0.0001802645,0.00043375,0.0008620992],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001029985,0.00002099076,0.0002421118,0.00009707304,0.00004381041,0.00006215395,0.00005267141,0.0009899127,0.0002584655,0.2395408,0.7203319,0.03825704],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003761159,0.00005374238,0.001256367,0.0001768905,0.00002354041,0.0001744859,0.00009225053,0.003599012,0.0003147035,0.4275203,0.5667198,0.00003137697],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"commentary","genre_gemma":"commentary","genre_scores_codex":[0.01302135,0.07655594,0.04474374,0.4378152,0.2827308,0.00005697137,0.003004573,0.0006982398,0.1413733],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.2622812,0.05610237,0.02751832,0.0405242,0.2044271,0.0002269057,0.00489076,0.002041714,0.4019874],"genre_candidate":"commentary","genre_consensus":"commentary","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02330819,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.07797366,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04513865925818055,"score_gpt":0.2257070048288295,"score_spread":0.180568345570649,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}