{"id":"W4200505235","doi":"10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102480","title":"US oil supply shocks and economies of oil-exporting African countries: A GVAR-Oil Resource Analysis","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Resources Policy","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":16,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Oil supply; Shale oil; Economics; Variance decomposition of forecast errors; Cointegration; Endogeneity; Oil shale; Oil price; Quarter (Canadian coin); Supply shock; Latin Americans; China; Econometrics; Macroeconomics; Monetary economics; Geography; Monetary policy; Petroleum engineering; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0009496996,0.000258206,0.001002765,0.0006981347,0.0001885289,0.0001760455,0.000277845,0.000163979,0.0005319618],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0005326921,0.0003060268,0.0003898918,0.001094811,0.000185956,0.0001288611,0.0002422658,0.0001861595,0.00001262539],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001491173,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00008775799,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005329936,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0009763961,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9975142,0.00006088706,0.001185967,0.0006671628,0.00007853722,0.000493243],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.997923,0.0002699954,0.0008415888,0.0007081171,0.00006101499,0.0001963464],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00004765651,0.00007498677,0.9756722,0.0002268586,0.0007701892,0.00001261981,0.003097831,0.0001692512,0.0000141562,0.01446652,0.0001384715,0.005309188],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001124893,0.00007553419,0.2646136,0.00007349909,0.0002724969,0.00001493875,0.00201932,0.04310793,0.00007105866,0.00388492,0.6838568,0.0008850218],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8428284,0.002803716,0.00002789641,0.001275432,0.00003491991,0.00001643248,0.0005911454,0.00002488251,0.1523972],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9849097,0.00130169,0.0002494565,0.0003844783,0.0001769084,0.00001293558,0.00005517596,0.0000315064,0.01287818],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7110587,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999392,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01201791500346141,"score_gpt":0.2243527898298992,"score_spread":0.2123348748264378,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}