{"id":"W4210586255","doi":"10.1111/risa.13888","title":"Decision‐first modeling should guide decision making for emerging risks","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Risk Analysis","topic":"Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis","field":"Engineering","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Concordia University; Carleton University","funders":"","keywords":"Decision analysis; Credibility; Risk analysis (engineering); Context (archaeology); Transparency (behavior); Decision support system; Emerging technologies; Business decision mapping; Computer science; Risk management; Decision engineering; Management science; Business; Political science; Computer security; Engineering; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","sts","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001324617,0.0002886155,0.0006215551,0.001167399,0.001421697,0.0001052302,0.0005391836,0.00009459392,0.00100609],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0003825593,0.0002860059,0.001073089,0.003098382,0.0000226173,0.0001912925,0.000178646,0.0004565234,0.00001160924],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003604838,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002456729,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0003957648,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001192568,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9973561,0.00007238745,0.000794837,0.0005531844,0.0007127967,0.0005106611],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9982557,0.0006496634,0.0001207336,0.0007512515,0.0001223126,0.0001003282],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003138911,0.00001422134,0.0103672,0.00001183743,0.0009816847,0.000002895483,0.0002255148,0.9093423,0.00001939443,0.0000428416,0.0006363216,0.07832444],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000209431,0.00001701342,0.0007450221,0.00001128099,0.002666472,0.000001918449,0.0006628758,0.9859294,0.0000305178,0.004330729,0.005063202,0.0003321014],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.2708621,0.0006082717,0.7277751,0.00002415292,0.0001731438,0.0001293332,0.00007632026,0.0001501166,0.0002015013],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9550575,0.000317213,0.04424219,0.00004332056,0.0001162156,0.0001096263,0.00004202749,0.0000449744,0.00002692086],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.6841955,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999592,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02648481078875013,"score_gpt":0.3216188293352821,"score_spread":0.2951340185465319,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}