{"id":"W4210586255","doi":"10.1111/risa.13888","title":"Decision‐first modeling should guide decision making for emerging risks","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Risk Analysis","topic":"Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis","field":"Engineering","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Concordia University; Carleton University","funders":"","keywords":"Decision analysis; Credibility; Risk analysis (engineering); Context (archaeology); Transparency (behavior); Decision support system; Emerging technologies; Business decision mapping; Computer science; Risk management; Decision engineering; Management science; Business; Political science; Computer security; Engineering; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.06426851,0.003965205,0.003579188,0.006362431,0.006631463,0.02531309,0.008639742,0.01062053,0.01648109],"category_scores_gemma":[0.10807,0.002332415,0.00405721,0.00441076,0.01470991,0.02495923,0.01186819,0.01897836,0.006068159],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.01333052,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.03193794,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.009352413,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01437469,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9575933,0.02983217,0.002225075,0.002735103,0.006026938,0.001587391],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.8998262,0.06927398,0.005604945,0.008284709,0.01302319,0.00398706],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00005911345,0.0001652297,0.001204589,0.0009187497,0.0001830442,0.0002478339,0.003547396,0.04205625,0.0003473201,0.8774815,0.02841855,0.0453705],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003614407,0.0000334046,0.000154532,0.0009448113,0.00003748459,0.00005952395,0.001395631,0.02009777,0.0002295213,0.88688,0.09004758,0.00008362853],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"commentary","genre_scores_codex":[0.002961333,0.002101599,0.8430613,0.09372204,0.001739575,0.0008385535,0.0004680465,0.0008871642,0.05422033],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.1179461,0.003491257,0.8594855,0.007657577,0.0007595779,0.001677811,0.0006539178,0.0005007702,0.007827518],"genre_candidate":"commentary","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.06426851,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3398884,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02648481078875013,"score_gpt":0.3216188293352821,"score_spread":0.2951340185465319,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}