{"id":"W4210665655","doi":"10.21810/jicw.v4i3.4161","title":"Communicating Uncertainty in Warning Intelligence","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Journal of Intelligence Conflict and Warfare","topic":"Intelligence, Security, War Strategy","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Presentation (obstetrics); Event (particle physics); Psychology; Period (music); Social psychology; Computer science; Medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["sts"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00715692,0.0001949663,0.0003519665,0.0002563293,0.001623402,0.0001047273,0.001922751,0.00007941644,0.0006277342],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0008276583,0.0001544709,0.0001141202,0.0008686737,0.0007739846,0.0002724379,0.0004472023,0.001554791,0.00001007489],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002753471,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003801791,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004634718,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001678757,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9960556,0.001530911,0.0009360343,0.0001689621,0.0007952406,0.0005132633],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9970932,0.0014092,0.0006346439,0.0003448239,0.0003627574,0.0001553565],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"qualitative","study_design_gemma":"qualitative","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000359593,0.0002212844,0.005575538,0.00003932285,0.00008173062,0.00009658008,0.6683683,0.0434914,0.0003424638,0.118399,0.0003521722,0.1626726],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001446348,0.0007199725,0.0005433749,0.0002494963,0.00006297432,0.0003051604,0.8104571,0.00765098,0.001425344,0.0210659,0.1568064,0.000568664],"study_design_candidate":"qualitative","study_design_consensus":"qualitative","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9183741,0.02931928,0.01033787,0.01149052,0.001661532,0.001008546,0.00002145345,0.0000842224,0.02770254],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9915499,0.007448121,0.0001752954,0.0004010496,0.0001412245,0.000008432894,0.000001399909,0.000015898,0.000258666],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.162104,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9996763,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0654498158839729,"score_gpt":0.3510759894801607,"score_spread":0.2856261735961877,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}