{"id":"W4210943718","doi":"10.22541/au.164440121.18799387/v1","title":"Model selection isn't causal inference","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"","topic":"Species Distribution and Climate Change","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Dalhousie University","funders":"","keywords":"Causal inference; Observational study; Inference; Causal structure; Selection (genetic algorithm); Causal model; Model selection; Causality (physics); Computer science; Machine learning; Econometrics; Artificial intelligence; Mathematics; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":["metaresearch"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.05897308,0.001792931,0.00339454,0.002518453,0.001360039,0.004458673,0.003685669,0.003765204,0.008760671],"category_scores_gemma":[0.2308516,0.001786608,0.002644374,0.003054109,0.007132696,0.009288505,0.003593822,0.01084857,0.001687242],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001853678,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002970261,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003524509,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003802108,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9594646,0.02725884,0.001662767,0.005413766,0.005365713,0.0008343531],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.7057125,0.2524003,0.007550207,0.02809504,0.005159457,0.001082568],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":"methods","domain_candidate":"methods","domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001620655,0.00008591694,0.00621992,0.001550557,0.00199768,0.0005039344,0.0006151546,0.03412439,0.0005303636,0.8365206,0.01761287,0.1000765],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00005498717,0.00001825421,0.0004644567,0.0001474507,0.0001071106,0.0000959608,0.00003910935,0.03223803,0.0002262892,0.959762,0.006819134,0.00002713486],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.004782033,0.001739273,0.9763492,0.009415179,0.0008159479,0.00008385968,0.000601401,0.0005521017,0.005660955],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.4745249,0.006030915,0.4892091,0.01443824,0.004400495,0.001167662,0.001723597,0.001451241,0.007053766],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.9410269,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3118832,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0685917909083336,"score_gpt":0.3014418038645232,"score_spread":0.2328500129561896,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}