{"id":"W4211165067","doi":"10.1177/1745691612454303","title":"Hindsight Bias","year":2012,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Perspectives on Psychological Science","topic":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":445,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"National Science Foundation","keywords":"Hindsight bias; Overconfidence effect; Psychology; Debiasing; Cognitive bias; Recall; Cognitive psychology; Intervention (counseling); Sensemaking; Meaning (existential); Neglect; Social psychology; Philosophy of science; Cognition; Epistemology; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.00793758,0.000193515,0.0002762601,0.0004438746,0.0005181455,0.0005484507,0.002223858,0.00009881455,0.002676585],"category_scores_gemma":[0.007992332,0.0001104354,0.0001625778,0.002238399,0.001432032,0.001006596,0.0002320802,0.0002985817,0.00649738],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001810297,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002927258,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.000004734462,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":9.007109e-7,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9956135,0.0001527398,0.0004699993,0.001277944,0.001735392,0.0007503812],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9967173,0.001142773,0.0002090886,0.00114101,0.0002733907,0.0005164043],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001216793,0.00256244,0.0397467,2.432126e-7,0.000003666433,0.00001209286,0.005416661,0.00003880225,0.002664702,0.0672933,0.01158501,0.8705547],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004835907,0.0008859081,0.7531896,0.00001309831,0.000007196596,0.00007543773,0.01230334,0.0001567683,0.0005981514,0.1745982,0.05704534,0.0006432841],"study_design_candidate":"design_other","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8777983,0.0001296813,0.0004919556,0.001161484,0.001785857,0.0001054808,0.00000496765,0.00007782304,0.1184445],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9962773,0.00001694728,0.001914447,0.0007582638,0.0002341167,0.000008053677,1.694804e-7,0.000006460677,0.0007842279],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.8699114,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9982351,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.3982961838288664,"score_gpt":0.5334642844091555,"score_spread":0.1351681005802891,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}