{"id":"W4212784128","doi":"10.23889/ijpds.v5i4.1697","title":"Validating the QCOVID risk prediction algorithm for risk of mortality from COVID-19 in the adult population in Wales, UK.","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Journal for Population Data Science","topic":"Immune responses and vaccinations","field":"Immunology and Microbiology","cited_by":19,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"NIHR Leicester Biomedical Research Centre; Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council; Welsh Ambulance Services NHS Trust; Health and Social Care Research and Development Division; Public Health Agency; Queen's University Belfast; Wales Institute of Social and Economic Research and Data; University of Oxford; Queen's University; Economic and Social Research Council; Swansea University; University of Leicester; Medical Research Council; Department of Health and Social Care; Queen Mary University of London; National Institute for Health and Care Research; Scottish Government; Chief Scientist Office, Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorate; Public Health Wales; Wellcome Trust; University College London; British Heart Foundation; Llywodraeth Cymru; Cardiff University; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; UK Research and Innovation; Health and Care Research Wales; Imperial College London","keywords":"Medicine; Population; Brier score; Retrospective cohort study; Demography; Cohort; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Cohort study; Pandemic; Risk assessment; Algorithm; Computer science; Machine learning; Disease; Environmental health; Internal medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.02385326,0.0006133699,0.000753885,0.001885677,0.0004680518,0.001795323,0.001451411,0.0008319074,0.002237034],"category_scores_gemma":[0.07698938,0.0004312696,0.0009727885,0.0009748093,0.0004883375,0.0007471752,0.002187448,0.000903328,0.001224727],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002077869,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002880674,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02495825,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01661025,"domain_scores_codex":[0.989415,0.004456275,0.001340552,0.001695261,0.002660017,0.0004328182],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9720915,0.01083492,0.004976186,0.002265818,0.009177999,0.00065352],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004952098,0.00008663188,0.9517557,0.0001953393,0.0002161063,0.00008392807,0.0002465584,0.007180639,0.000344324,0.0003482463,0.005074287,0.03397305],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004044751,0.0008639679,0.8101432,0.000626637,0.000289491,0.0009270473,0.0005267473,0.1693703,0.002374156,0.001436958,0.01292928,0.0001076667],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9347016,0.001669162,0.03881136,0.001902415,0.0003308461,0.001364535,0.01459015,0.000636903,0.005992987],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9437542,0.0003545319,0.0392255,0.0003933073,0.00008017102,0.0007518037,0.0137257,0.00007238732,0.001642412],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02495825,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1261496,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06150108544015832,"score_gpt":0.3861917306243675,"score_spread":0.3246906451842091,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}