{"id":"W4212784128","doi":"10.23889/ijpds.v5i4.1697","title":"Validating the QCOVID risk prediction algorithm for risk of mortality from COVID-19 in the adult population in Wales, UK.","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Journal for Population Data Science","topic":"Immune responses and vaccinations","field":"Immunology and Microbiology","cited_by":19,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"NIHR Leicester Biomedical Research Centre; Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council; Welsh Ambulance Services NHS Trust; Health and Social Care Research and Development Division; Public Health Agency; Queen's University Belfast; Wales Institute of Social and Economic Research and Data; University of Oxford; Queen's University; Economic and Social Research Council; Swansea University; University of Leicester; Medical Research Council; Department of Health and Social Care; Queen Mary University of London; National Institute for Health and Care Research; Scottish Government; Chief Scientist Office, Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorate; Public Health Wales; Wellcome Trust; University College London; British Heart Foundation; Llywodraeth Cymru; Cardiff University; London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine; UK Research and Innovation; Health and Care Research Wales; Imperial College London","keywords":"Medicine; Population; Brier score; Retrospective cohort study; Demography; Cohort; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Cohort study; Pandemic; Risk assessment; Algorithm; Computer science; Machine learning; Disease; Environmental health; Internal medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.005959176,0.00009167068,0.0001271084,0.0003229433,0.001276307,0.00008971231,0.001696248,0.0000448189,0.00009159847],"category_scores_gemma":[0.004444296,0.00006501889,0.00007447707,0.0004019009,0.00008565449,0.0006346149,0.0002709535,0.0003840913,8.846612e-7],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003936734,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0002166225,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01800576,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002131857,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9979116,0.0006039048,0.0006958443,0.0002935741,0.0003046958,0.0001904372],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9973629,0.001183332,0.0008039441,0.0003929243,0.000239642,0.00001726074],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003217563,0.0001796952,0.9318564,0.000003684713,0.00009812157,0.00000131296,0.001407787,0.01803641,0.001202032,0.00310479,0.001249269,0.04253875],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001640894,0.00008080203,0.9061658,0.00001295682,0.00004901668,0.00004589047,0.001688526,0.07732421,0.00008236316,0.008590882,0.004235562,0.00008307312],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9344309,0.000219958,0.04895058,0.001117402,0.002157622,0.000646813,0.01246036,0.000009849507,0.000006530241],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9930899,0.0000817874,0.001425963,0.0001801211,0.00009057464,0.00008099787,0.00501683,0.000005763623,0.00002811118],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.05928781,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9885334,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06150108544015832,"score_gpt":0.3861917306243675,"score_spread":0.3246906451842091,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}