{"id":"W4213270339","doi":"10.3390/stats5010013","title":"Bootstrap Prediction Intervals of Temporal Disaggregation","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Stats","topic":"Statistical Methods and Inference","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":6,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Autoregressive integrated moving average; Sieve (category theory); Econometrics; Interval (graph theory); Prediction interval; Series (stratigraphy); Quarter (Canadian coin); Computer science; TRACE (psycholinguistics); Time series; Statistics; Mathematics; Geography; Geology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003509144,0.00004854043,0.000109509,0.00003209771,0.00005541179,0.000005106838,0.00006969066,0.00001278515,0.0009208845],"category_scores_gemma":[0.000440459,0.00004485793,0.00003072535,0.0000894573,0.00003351607,0.00003301559,0.00005183729,0.0000847597,0.000002033],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00002629653,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002061149,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00002099048,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000002505075,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992695,0.000129001,0.0002278879,0.00009322552,0.0001980916,0.00008221983],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9994074,0.0003013886,0.000112381,0.0001186871,0.00003362425,0.00002654065],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001083549,0.0003662524,0.01243403,0.0002349683,0.00005193601,0.000006935283,0.002591715,0.00002279574,0.003180091,0.8389014,0.01241602,0.1296855],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002402167,0.0003723451,0.007953282,0.00002630677,0.00001932109,0.000003715187,0.0005939023,0.002029596,0.001813106,0.9856753,0.001200567,0.00007229714],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.5191616,0.00003763524,0.4719439,0.0001538831,0.0004890235,0.0002803757,0.000756564,0.0000748758,0.007102154],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9306996,0.000001728265,0.06898521,0.00001896952,0.00002176629,0.00002620155,0.00001505189,0.000007311576,0.0002240966],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4115381,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999924,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1566662343872108,"score_gpt":0.4080396346165272,"score_spread":0.2513734002293164,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}