{"id":"W4213295302","doi":"10.1111/padr.12469","title":"Six Ways Population Change Will Affect the Global Economy","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Population and Development Review","topic":"Economic Growth and Productivity","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":113,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Economic and Social Research Council; William and Flora Hewlett Foundation; European Commission; International Development Research Centre; United Nations Population Fund; National Institute on Aging; World Bank Group","keywords":"Population; Economics; Standard of living; Population ageing; Productivity; Population growth; Distribution (mathematics); Demographic economics; Demographic change; Affect (linguistics); Debt; Development economics; Economic growth; Demography; Market economy; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001074321,0.0001339015,0.000322596,0.0000501307,0.0004424175,0.0000426328,0.0001245056,0.00002449018,0.0006932867],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00004496811,0.0001266526,0.00005601289,0.0001717095,0.00001165014,0.0003240014,0.0001207721,0.00009512137,0.0001061987],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002550943,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001128536,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0003561826,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00006446052,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988716,0.00004497569,0.000524725,0.0003490429,0.00003077534,0.0001788347],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993622,0.00002122859,0.0003424729,0.0002077226,0.00000901802,0.00005741343],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000003886772,0.00002184627,0.7847465,0.0002891351,0.00001904054,3.198242e-7,0.0001040247,0.00000679358,2.247508e-8,0.1626123,0.0007481315,0.051448],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001089825,0.00001001891,0.5061765,0.00002728092,0.00000416208,0.000006998971,0.000005347726,0.00009227173,1.715323e-7,0.01240257,0.4810245,0.0001412126],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"review","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4256794,0.497521,0.001607393,0.0245765,0.002813247,0.00552843,0.000263063,0.0002598798,0.04175106],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9919997,0.003517732,0.0003483281,0.003299289,0.00009893913,0.0003120491,0.0003074186,0.00001013091,0.0001064036],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.5663203,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7591003,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.08854534305036765,"score_gpt":0.256226055002666,"score_spread":0.1676807119522983,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}