{"id":"W4213387360","doi":"10.12688/wellcomeopenres.17253.2","title":"Lessons learned and lessons missed: impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on all-cause mortality in 40 industrialised countries and US states prior to mass vaccination","year":2022,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"Wellcome Open Research","topic":"Climate Change and Health Impacts","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":23,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences; Medical Research Council; Novo Nordisk; Royal Society; British Heart Foundation; Wellcome Trust; AstraZeneca; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency","keywords":"Pandemic; Demography; Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); Geography; Socioeconomics; Disease; Medicine; Infectious disease (medical specialty); Sociology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0061213,0.0003102327,0.0005195782,0.0002489767,0.0005397421,0.0003986975,0.001317007,0.0002278804,0.003728939],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001118933,0.0002384643,0.00006882028,0.0005189977,0.0002772254,0.0002074318,0.005809562,0.001511001,0.0000302885],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002429606,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0008262403,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.08293685,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.009544754,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9950197,0.001489972,0.0005149754,0.0009582805,0.001220084,0.0007969937],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9967238,0.0009815652,0.0002596265,0.0009740565,0.00003733802,0.001023627],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.002220035,0.0002225263,0.9791951,0.0002578966,0.00006202509,0.0000369039,0.002211817,0.00679862,0.0003754953,0.00006815944,0.00473229,0.00381915],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00146013,0.0002521086,0.9861245,0.0001655848,0.00004124415,0.00000139472,0.0005362984,0.0004833646,0.00002998336,0.002962219,0.007679182,0.0002639599],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9628726,0.0002478187,0.000001246669,0.02971325,0.000091545,0.004170437,0.002488953,0.00001369547,0.0004004249],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9893361,0.008121146,0.00001383155,0.001001349,0.00003026826,0.0003807731,0.0002310325,0.00004064756,0.0008448563],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.07339209,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9971818,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.6578447738509359,"score_gpt":0.5730404008607921,"score_spread":0.08480437299014376,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}